Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a model that’s used in finance and investments to identify a portfolio of options that can maximise return on investment. We applied this approach to coral reef conservation planning to identify a portfolio of reefs that are expected to be among the least impacted by climate change, while also safeguarding against the uncertainty of future climate conditions.

Our research

We identified coral reefs around the world that are less vulnerable to climate change and better connected to other coral reef systems. This work informs our long-term strategic planning, by identifying priority areas for conservation over the coming decades.

Reefs are impacted by a wide variety of threats, but climate change is by far the biggest danger. We identified a suite of metrics and used this as a basis for identifying coral reef conservation priorities. The metrics included:

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Historical ocean warming

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Expected future ocean warming

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Risk of cyclone damage

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Larval connectivity among reefs

Risk & reward

Ignoring risk is in itself a high-risk strategy. Our MPT approach factors future risk into the equation, so that even if some locations in the portfolio are severely impacted by climate change, we have a safety net. By protecting those reefs and helping them to recover following disturbance, they can help other neighbouring locations to be recolonised when conditions have stabilised.

Our global partnerships

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Our strategic approach

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Let’s build a
climate-ready future!

To restore the world's coral reefs, we need support from all sectors. From individuals and communities to governments and industries, collaboration is the key.

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